NOT SO GREEN  |  So, our Quiet Sun ?

By Steven Keeler | Sep 13, 2016
Source: NASA


The consensus prediction from 2007


Compare that prediction in 2007, to this plot of actual values today:

Note that the current values plotted still fall far short of the updated predictions made to account for a much lower Solar Cycle 24.


Here's the model used by the " consensus " in making their failed prediction


With the exception of Dr. Svalgaard, the panel of consensus scientists were all wrong, and Cycle 24 is turning out to be a complete forecast bust, and the the lowest in 100 years, and it was neither extreme, nor average.

Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years ?
Published January, 2005

Predicting the peak amplitude of the sunspot cycle is a key goal of solar-terrestrial physics. The precursor method currently favored for such predictions is based on the dynamo model in which large-scale polar fields on the decline of the 11-year solar cycle are converted to toroidal (sunspot) fields during the subsequent cycle. The strength of the polar fields during the decay of one cycle is assumed to be an indicator of peak sunspot activity for the following cycle. Polar fields reach their peak amplitude several years after sunspot maximum; the time of peak strength is signaled by the onset of a strong annual modulation of polar fields due to the 7 - 1/4 degree  tilt of the solar equator to the ecliptic plane. Using direct polar field measurements, now available for four solar cycles, we predict that the approaching solar cycle 24 ( approximately 2011 maximum ) will have a peak smoothed monthly sunspot number of 75 ± 8, making it potentially the smallest cycle in the last 100 years.


People like Dr. Landscheidt did predict a distinct weakening of Solar Cycles until a minimum around the year 2030 even earlier than 2005.

For Instance, already in the year 2003 Dr. Landscheidt wrote,

“ It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. ”


“ We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago .”


The theory however, runs into problems, both in the physics [the forces are much too small] and in the data [does not match observations] .


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